Has the robot made the beds yet? (part one)

When I think about future trends, I see a convergence between the availability, the cost of menial help and the strides made by Artificial Intelligence (AI), so I’m thinking it’s only a matter of a few years (within a decade, I believe) before we had domestic robots performing household shores from making beds to cleaning the house and cooking us meals. 

That’s not quite what the expert says, but like me, they’ve been wrong many times, so let’s read what they’re saying… While its generally admitted that the dream of a robotic housekeeper is inching closer—experts don’t believe it’s quite ready yet to fold our laundry. Here's what they tell it might take and when we could hope to see it. 

First, advanced robotics hardware robots must still be perfected to physically handle a variety of tasks, like gripping delicate objects, navigating cluttered spaces, and adapting to unpredictable environments. This means better sensors, dexterity, and mobility. Further, these robots will need to understand context like we can. For example, knowing not to put a cat in the washing machine or how to respond to a spill while cooking. 

This kind of intuitive reasoning is still a major challenge according to what I hear. Some say that AI systems that learn from videos of humans doing tasks, like peeling potatoes or watering plants, will be able to adapt what their camera see into robotic actions. I’m told that companies like Toyota and Google are actively developing these models. When and if that technology works, it needs to be affordable and socially accepted. Privacy concerns, reliability, and cost are said to be big hurdles, but frankly I’ve got my doubts about it. 

My sources indicate that within the next 5 years we might see more specialized robots—like vacuums, mops, and maybe grocery delivery bots. In fact these already exist and we would see improvements creep up rapidly. Within 10 years, around 40% of household chores could be automated, especially repetitive tasks like cleaning and shopping. 

Robots might assist with cooking or organizing, but don’t expect complex care-giving to be possible. Within 15 years, would be the time when fully autonomous, general-purpose household robots would become a reality. The ones that can do laundry, cook meals, and adapt to our preferences would still be decades away. 

I don’t quite agree with that timeline, and tomorrow, I will attempt to explain why these delays might be cut in two. Stay tuned…