Whenever I pick up the phone and talk to friends and family around Morzine, France, in the Northern French Alps, the economy sounds as if it were hunky-dory in spite of a winter-long, razor-thin snow cover. The big difference between Morzine and Park City is real estate.
Here in the Rockies, the market is totally moribund, still waiting to reach its bottom, and this might be another two to three years down the road. In Haute-Savoie, it still seems to be going gangbusters, to the point that locals can no longer afford their home anymore. How high will it go? I personally think it's nearing is apex just now, and depending on how the PIIGS situation evolves in Europe, it might be on its very last leg.
Even if Europe can successfully resolve its internal debt problem, the continent will have to start “deleveraging” in a big way, and with that process, real estate will freeze before it falls through the end of this decade. At least that's what my crystal ball predicts...
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