Friday, November 29, 2019

Is the stock market ready for the plunge?

After breaking all records lately, the U.S. stock market shows no sign of weakening in spite of all the trade uncertainty and the recession rumor-mill. So my question is the following?

Is the Market overvalued and, as an investor, should I be mindful of it. Morningstar, my usual benchmark says that it’s only overvalued by 2%, while the CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is a valuation measure that applies to the US S&P 500 equity market and that is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average), adjusted for inflation.

It is also used to measure if a stock is undervalued or overvalued by comparing its current market price to its inflation adjusted historical earnings record. It is like the more popular price to earning ratio but it is calculated by dividing the current price of a stock by its average inflation adjusted earning over the last 10 years. It’s he brainchild of the American economist Robert Shiller.

While it’s not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, high CAPE values have been associated with similar events. It’s not as bad as it was in 1999, but it’s still pretty high… Time to watch out?

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