The unbelievable things I read...

Our World in Data (OWID) is a scientific online publication that focuses on large global problems. It’s a project of a registered charity from the UK founded by Max Roser, a social historian and development economist and gets its data from a research team based at the University of Oxford. 

Recently, I came across a study from that organization claiming that:  

Two centuries of rapid global population growth will come to an end. The article claims that population explosions are temporary. Before 1700, the global population grew only very slowly – only 0.04% per year. 

This was explained by very high children mortality counteracted with high fertility. Once health improved and mortality declined, things changed quickly. Over the last 100 years global population more than quadrupled. 

This increase has amplified humanity’s impact on the natural environment. To provide space, food, and resources for a large world population in a sustainable way into the distant future is and remains one the largest challenges for our generation. 

Population growth is still fast: Every year 140 million are born and 58 million die, adding 82 million to the world population. The chart herein also suggests a slow ending of global demographic growth. As it declines, the curve representing the world population is no longer as steep. 

By the end of the century – when global population growth has fallen to 0.1% according to UN projections, it’ll get better. Yet, it is hard to know the population dynamics beyond 2100; it will depend on a falling fertility rate as development increases, and doesn’t rise above an average of 2 children per woman. 

In this projection the world population will reach almost 11 billion in 2100. 

In my view, this is an observation made in a vacuum. It doesn’t take into consideration global warming (a symptom of overpopulation) and its consequences in terms of maintaining a livable planet beyond 2100. It also ignores the planet social tensions rising from inequity that are likely to produce revolts, mass-invasion and other instability. 

It also hopes that the United Nations’ data and projections are correct. No one knows for sure. It sounds more like wishful thinking than anything else. My sense tells me that everything possible should be undertaking to further reduce and stop – if not reverse – population growth now.