Macron vs. Le Pen

Even though we could, in spite of a complicated process, we choose not to vote in the French election for the simple reason that we don’t reside in that country. 

We’re not close enough to fully understand what goes on in our native land and have no vested interest there either. We just follow the politics from a distance and strive to appreciate the impossible choice offered to our family and friends who live over-there.

To us, Macron has always appeared as an aloof technocrat who is totally unable to level with his constituents. 

Le Pen is a nationalist-extremist, Trump-style, which for us is a non-starter, yet she’s a woman and has recently rounded her extremist edges to make herself more appealing. 

As for Mélenchon, we see his clownishness and a program that speak “socialist” to those that have been marooned by Mitterand’s party. 

Finally there is the (good) relationship with Putin that exists for both, canceling this liability out. So with this in mind, what do we think might develop after the runoff election? 

We believe Macron still is likely to win, perhaps with just a hair-thin margin, as long as he doesn’t screw up the April 20 debate and doesn’t make a huge blunder during the campaign.

The Joker will found among Mélenchon’s electorate that might sit out the vote, or even go for Le Pen that follows a similar populist vein; at any rate, Macron will have to remain extremely vigilant and tactical if he wants to win...