...And now the Farmer’s Almanac snow forecast!

Following the winter weather forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), we just got the Farmers Almanac’s one.

This publication goes back to 1818 and provides long-range weather predictions for both the U.S. and Canada. Its publisher that "many of its longtime followers claim that their forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate", but most scientific analyses of the accuracy its forecasts have shown a 50% rate of accuracy, no greater than random chance, but higher than that of groundhog prognostication, another folklore method of forecasting.

As far as Park City is concerned, we are smack in the middle of the western Intermountain region (Spokane down to Flagstaff, and Reno to Salt Lake City), for which snowfall is predicted to be near normal. Overall precipitation will be slightly below normal, on average. In terms of temperatures, our winter will be slightly milder than normal, with cold periods in early to mid-December, late January, and late February.

This stands in stark contrast with NOAA’s forecast that didn’t appear favorable to Park City or the state of Colorado. I hope farmers will be right and scientists dead wrong, but in both cases, I’ll make a note to check how close their predictions come to reality at the end of winter, and let you know who you should believe.