Be careful what you wish for!

Over the past weeks, as the mid-term vote approaches, electoral signs have started to invade most Park City front yards. One of them that clearly stands out is non-partisan and cares more about what keeps this community alive: winter snow! 

“Vote Super El Niño" is a lighthearted Ski Utah marketing and community campaign launched ahead of the 2026–27 winter season to unite skiers and snowboarders after a dismal, low-snow previous winter. 

Ski Utah is the state's ski industry trade association led by Nathan Rafferty and its seasonal goal this year is to provide us all with fun, non-partisan relief from political election season by rallying residents and visitors around a shared hope for heavy snowfall. 

This fun campaign coincides with high meteorologic expectations for a strong or "super" El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific, but as we say "Be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it", is a popular warning that getting a lot of snow could turn into far too much, just like what happened this summer and continues to happen in Portillo, Chile!

A rare full month of vacation!

Fifty years ago, I was still working for Look ski bindings in France and for the second and last time in my working life, I would enjoy my second and last full month of annual vacation I would earn during my professional life. This is a perk French people find quite normal and cherish so much. 

I also remember that time because of that summer’s severe heatwave, particularly in August. I remember working in July at Look, with the our US distributor visiting staff on a technical manual for ski mechanics in a sweltering heat. Just like me, both Peter Juen and Ted Travis were sweating bullets and couldn’t not quite understand why there was no air conditioning in the brand new facility just built by Look’s owners. 

Still the 1976 heat wave couldn’t even come close to this summer’s. Even though it’s not quite over yet, the 2026 heatwave has been significantly more intense, hotter, more widespread, and more exceptional than the 1976 event—even though the latter remains memorable in the public consciousness due to its extreme drought and socioeconomic impact.

In terms of thermal intensity, 2026 holds a massive lead with a national peak intensity of 30°C against 25.5°C in 1976 (24-hour thermal index). In terms of geographic coverage, 1976 intense heat was primarily in the North, West, and Center of France while the South was less affected. In contrast 2026: extreme heat was felt across more than 40% of the country, with all-time records exceeding 40°C in many regions (Strasbourg 40.4°C, Noirmoutier 40.1°C). 

The nights are much hotter than in 1976, while 2026 has commonly seen nights above 20°C across 75% of the territory; up to 10 consecutive warm nights in Paris. These tropical nights significantly exacerbated the health of my countrymen. 

Finally, the 1976 drought was exceptional with dried-up rivers, a rainfall deficit of 50–70% and a major agricultural crisis that amplified tensions between President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing and his Prime Minister, Jacques Chirac. The handling of the 1976 crisis exacerbated disagreements over economic policy, on how to manage the agricultural crisis plus growing personal and political rivalry. The heatwave was not the sole cause, but it brought a latent conflict to a head that materialized into Chirac’s resignation. 

We don’t know yet the 2026’s political aftermath, but expect something to hear it in the coming months. There was some drought still present this summer but perhaps less extreme, the dominant factor being heat, not water scarcity even though the Dranse creek in my hometown has been running dry in some sections, something never seen before. 

In conclusion, the 1976 heatwave was a major event, primarily due to its drought conditions and political impact. The good news was that 1976 was generally considered a banner year for French wines, depending on the region—despite (or thanks to) the extreme summer drought. 

However, the 2026 heatwave is clearly more severe in terms of temperature, featuring all-time records, unprecedented tropical nights, and an intensity unmatched by 20th-century episodes, not to mention a record breaking and violent wildfire season.

Weather predictions for next winter…

The latest outlook from the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center just came out and covers pretty much the upcoming snow season including January, February and March 2027. 

It shows a recognizable El Niño pattern beginning to emerge with wetter conditions across much of the southern United States, drier weather across portions of the northern Rockies and increased odds of above-normal temperatures across large sections of the country.

These maps do not predict exact snowfall totals or individual winter storms. However, they provide what should be a good early indication of where the storm track may favor wetter, drier, warmer or cooler conditions during the 2026–2027 winter. 

As far as Park City is concerned you can see it for yourself: Temperatures trending higher and precipitation the same as normal. We’ll see, as always time will tell, and come early April, we’ll compare predictions against realities to see if any came close to what NOAA predicted….

Park City’s last patch of snow

Same thing every year. June 16 holds a special significance to me. On that day in 1985 as I was house-hunting and had rented a large camcorder to shoot a movie of the house we bought in Park City, for my wife to see and hopefully, get her stamp of approval. 

There was a bull-eye window in the house, and through it, I accidentally captured Jupiter Peak with a tiny snow patch left just below the summit, just like you can see on the picture below! 

What’s amazing is that this winter was our worst snow year ever, and yet after an excellent 1984-1985 snow season, we have as much snow left this year not to mention even more around the main bowl and Portuguese Gap, thanks to some cool weather in April, May and June. 

Amazing isn’t it?

 

Remember the Fall’s weather forecast? (Part Two)

In addition to the ups and downs of El Niño and La Niña, there has also been some atmospheric blocking and jet‑stream instability. During the fall of 2025, the jet stream did not set up in the classic 

La Niña pattern. Instead of steering Pacific storms into the Northwest and northern Rockies, it frequently split or stalled. 

This led to Storms missing the West entirely, with warm, dry ridges forming over the Great Basin and Rockies. In addition, the snow arrived later and in different regions than forecast had told us. 

According to the specialists, these blocking patterns are notoriously hard to predict more than 2–3 weeks ahead. The same experts also claim that local terrain effects amplify forecast errors. 

For instance, mountain regions like the Wasatch (here in Utah), Sierra (California), and Cascades (British Columbia, Oregon and Washington) depend on very specific storm trajectories. A shift of even 100 miles in the storm track can mean some heavy snow in one range but almost nothing in another. Once more, seasonal models cannot resolve these fine‑scale differences. 

Should I mention that the Farmer’s Almanac forecast uses non‑scientific methods and isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on? Unlike NOAA, the Farmer’s Almanac does not use physics‑based climate models. Its long‑range predictions rely on proprietary formulas, historical patterns and probably, fairy tales, which certainly don’t account for sudden ENSO shifts, jet‑stream behavior and anomalies, ocean‑atmosphere coupling and climate‑driven extremes. 

Seasonal snow forecasts will always carry large uncertainty, especially in the West where mountains create microclimates. NOAA’s probabilistic maps (like the snowfall probability tools I’m referring to) are more reliable than the Famer’s Almanac, but still cannot guarantee outcomes months ahead. Short‑range (1–2 week) forecasts remain far more accurate for snowfall than seasonal outlooks. 

The same specialists don’t mention climate change and the new trend for atmospheric rivers. I guess it’s only me who thinks that way. As a result, just don’t even consider long-term forecasts and make your own instead, or ask your dog if you have one!

Remember the Fall’s weather forecast? (Part One)

The fall‑2025 snow forecasts for the western United States promised us almost the same precipitations and temperatures as an average winter for Utah. In reality, it ended up being totally wrong and quite the opposite (no snow and milder temperatures) because the large‑scale climate signals that NOAA (US weather forecast) and the Farmer’s Almanac relied on, behaved totally differently than expected once the season actually arrived.

Even though the sources I’m mentioning were focused on general winter outlooks, they highlighted their key weakness as seasonal forecasts are probabilistic and heavily dependent on ENSO patterns (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The ENSO cycles are natural, recurring, 2–7 year climate variations involving shifts in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. 

These oscillations consist of three phases, El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool), and Neutral, all of which influence global weather, including precipitation, temperature, and hurricane activity, particularly during winter. As it looked into the winter 2025-26, NOAA, our national weather forecasting expected La Niña to continue, with a transition toward neutral conditions sometime in early 2026. 

But apparently the strength, timing, and regional impacts of La Niña vary widely from year to year. In 2025, the pattern weakened earlier and behaved irregularly, which disrupted the typical storm track that brings early‑season snow to the West. This means that even when the broad climate pattern is known, the exact distribution of snowfall was extremely difficult to predict months in advance. 

Our scientists are not talking much about climate change and the increased number of atmospheric rivers. This must be in my own head! There are however additional reasons that we’ll discuss tomorrow...

Snow at least!

On February 17, our long snow drought ended as I was able to sample the delights of Utah’s fabled powder snow for (almost) the first time this season. From a historical standpoint, this year’s drought over the Rocky Mountains and over Utah and Park City is a record-breaking one. 

According to SNOTEL data and historical weather logs, February 2026 has seen the lowest statewide snowpack ever recorded, even dipping below the previous record low of 1977. Our current snowpack levels were hovering around 49% of the median. Historically, if a winter does not "catch up" by mid-February, the odds of reaching a normal snowpack by April 1st are less than 10%, according to the Utah Avalanche Center. 

Hopefully the abundant snowfall we just received will do better than this! When looking back through written records and tree-ring data (which have been used to track moisture over centuries), the following winters stand out as the most significant "drought years" for Park City and its surrounding area. It all begun in a period from 1896 to 1907. called the "Great Drought", during the era of silver mining in Park City, when none of us were born yet, when we had some very lean winters, when our lush meadows on the high plateaus "turned to dust beds." 

This is considered by climatologists to be the most severe drought since the settlement of Utah. A bad winter happened in 1933–1934 during the Dust Bowl Era. This was before skiing was ingrained as a “popular sport.” That winter saw the lowest winter precipitation year in Utah’s recorded history since statewide tracking began in the late 1800s. 

The Impact was severe; by May 1934, Utah's mountain streams, which peak in spring, reportedly looked like "August trickles." Agriculture around Park City was devastated. This period (1930–1936) represents the most severe multi-year moisture deficit in the state's modern history. 

Then came the winter of 1976–1977, called that of the "Benchmark", often referred to by locals as "the winter that didn't happen." This was long before man-made snow came to the West, so many resorts, including Park City, struggled to open at all before Christmas. 

In November and December 1976, Alta (the regional high-water mark) received only 30.5 inches of snow—the lowest early-season total in modern records until now. The big difference was that 1977 was a "cold drought", freezing but bone-dry. In contrast this 2025-2026 is a "compound drought" because it’s both dry and record-warm, meaning much of what would have been snow fell as rain or melted immediately. 

We had the 2014–2015 called the "Short" Winter that held the record for the lowest total seasonal snowfall at many measuring stations. This luckily happened as we were finishing building our new home and welcomed the sparse snow. 

In Park City, the total snowfall for that season was only 154 inches (the average is closer to 270–300 inches). While following our home’s building progress, I still managed to ski 87 times and descend almost 1,273,955 feet (388,301 meters). 

Finally, we had the 2017–2018 that we call the “Recent Low”, something I can’t hardly remember since it didn’t make a huge dent in my skiing (I skied 108 times and some 1,833,435 feet vertical (558,831 meters)). 

On New Year’s Day 2018, Utah’s statewide Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) was just 3.0 inches. In late December 2025, that record was broken when the SWE dropped to 2.7 inches, cementing this current year as the new "worst on record." 

All this doesn’t tell us how long we’ll keep on receiving snow, but for the moment we got a season’s extension! 

Atmospheric river’s downside (Part Three)

Just to remind my readers, I wanted to know how atmospheric rivers were affecting our winter snowpack in the mountains of Park City as well as our flood risk at high altitudes. Atmospheric rivers behave like a high-pressure fire-hose of moisture. 

While they bring heavy rain to the coast, their impact changes dramatically once they hit the "vertical wall" of a mountain range, with a complete list of risks and benefits. First, in coastal areas, the primary threat is volume of water and its intensity. Because coastal temperatures are usually well above freezing, 100% of the atmospheric river’s moisture falls as rain. 

There’s the risk of flash flooding as the ground quickly becomes saturated, leading to immediate urban flooding and mudslides. This situation doesn’t last too long and often ends shortly after the "river" passes, as the water drains quickly into the ocean. 

The mountains present a different set of circumstances that specialists call "Orographic Lifting". As the atmospheric river hits the mountains, the air is forced upward. This is called orographic lifting. As the air rises, it cools rapidly, causing it to "wring out" even more moisture than it did at the coast. This means that mountainous regions often receive double or triple the precipitation seen at sea level.

There’s also a "Double-Edged Sword" effect for snow-pack at high altitudes where the atmospheric river becomes a game of temperature. These storms are typically warm, which creates two very different scenarios. First there is the good news also known as the "Big Gulp". 

If the storm is cold enough, it can drop 5–10 feet of snow in a single weekend. Some of these "drought-buster" events have been known to provide the bulk of the Western US water supply for a full year! Then there is the bad news, which seems to be happening more and more as we advance into climate change. It’s known as the “Rain-on-Snow”event. 

This is a big flood risk for mountain communities. Because ARs are warm, the "snow line" (the elevation where rain turns to snow) can climb much higher than usual, to 9,000 feet compared to Park City’s 7,100 feet. The Result is that warm rain falls on top of an existing deep snow-pack. The rain doesn't just run off; it melts the snow beneath it, releasing weeks' worth of stored water in just a few hours. 

This creates catastrophic "riverine" flooding downstream. This is what happened a lot until now and why I’ve been skiing so little this season!

Atmospheric river history (Part Two)

While the term "atmospheric river" didn’t exist in the 19th century, we have clear historical evidence of them causing massive disturbances. Such occurences began with the the great flood of 1862, the largest flood in the recorded history of California, Oregon, and Nevada. 

It was caused by a "family" of back-to-back atmospheric rivers that turned California's Central Valley into an inland sea. Before that, by studying tree rings and sediment layers, scientists have identified "mega-AR" events occurring as far back as A.D. 212, suggesting these have been a consistent feature of Earth's climate for millennia. 

In the last decade, our understanding has moved from "discovery" to "categorization." In 2019, Dr. F. Martin Ralph and colleagues at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography developed the AR Scale (1 to 5). Much like the hurricane scale, it helps the public understand if an incoming atmospheric river will be "beneficial" (filling reservoirs/ending droughts) or "hazardous" (causing floods and landslides). 

Overall, scientific studies confirm that atmospheric rivers are becoming stronger, wetter, larger, and more frequent in recent years, leading to more intense precipitation, and the primary reason is human-caused climate change. 

A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, fueling these "rivers in the sky" with extra water vapor from oceans, resulting in more extreme rainfall, flooding, and wind events, particularly impacting the US West Coast. Combined with steadily increasing temperatures, this will lead to less and less snow in the US Sierras, Cascades and Rocky Mountains. 

Since I live in Park City, a mountain region, I want to know how atmospheric rivers specifically affect our snowpack and even flood risk in our mountain town compared to coastal areas and this is something we’ll discuss in our next blog, so please, stay tuned!

Atmospheric river primer (Part one)

This early winter has been marked in the American West with a prevalence of meteorological “atmospheric rivers”, something we’ve discussed many times in this blog in recent years, and since it ruined my early ski season, I was curious for how long this phenomenon has been a known weather factor? 

Although the term "atmospheric river" (AR) has only been part of the scientific and public vocabulary for about 30 years, the weather phenomenon itself has been documented and studied under different names for centuries. The name "atmospheric river" was coined in 1992 (and further popularized in a 1994 study) by two researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT): Reginald Newell and Yong Zhu.

As both were analyzing global data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, they discovered that over 90% of the moisture moving from the tropics toward the poles was concentrated in narrow, fast-moving "filaments" that covered less than 10% of the Earth's circumference. 

Before Newell and Zhu’s naming them this way, these storms were well-known to meteorologists and residents of coastal regions, but I remember them as being called "Pineapple Express", referring to atmospheric rivers that originate near Hawaii and hit the U.S. West Coast. 

Some called them the “Warm Conveyor Belts", a term used in the 1970s to describe the flow of warm, moist air within a cyclone. Other weather forecasters called it "Moisture Plumes" or "Tropical Connections", to describe the visible bands of clouds on satellite imagery. 

The reason Newell and Zhu chose “Atmospheric river” was because these bands carried an astounding amount of water, as a single strong atmospheric river could transport roughly 15 times the average flow of the Mississippi River! Tomorrow, we’ll review the historical weather events involving this phenomenon... 

Gone skiing!

Yesterday I went skiing, not for the sheer pleasure of it, but just to preview the skiing conditions that my daughter is likely to encounter on Christmas day when she’s with us and she decided to make a few turns with me then. 

It was 2 pm when I left home, the temperature was 53 degrees and when I get to the Canyon Village at Park City Mountain, there were few skiers, but the man-made snow that was the only way to go was the same quality that skiers would find at the end of April: Pure, unadulterated slush! 

Even on mid-mountain, at 8,500 feet, there was just a dusting of snow left and the man-made snow was eroding badly and one could spot rock through the translucent thin cover. The hard work put out by the resorts to make snow is going to waste. The few artificially snow covered runs were also very tricky, not dangerous to navigate! Gone skiing!

Skiers and snowboarders were having a tough time handling that heavy snow in what would turn into a mogul run in all the steeper portions of every run. I guess we’ll need a miraculous dump of cold snow to go skiing during the Holidays, but looking at the forecast, I’m not so hopeful! 

Al Gore was right almost 20 years ago, in 2006 when he published his book “An inconvenient truth”. We were only 6.6 billion on this planet, now we’re almost 8.3! We didn’t listen well, did almost nothing, and are crashing right into the wall.

Where’s the snow?

Last week we were expecting some snow, but it chose to ignore Park City and its mountains with a weather that remained stubbornly mild at that time of the year. This reminded me of two key factors: precipitations and temperatures. 

In order to get some natural snow we need both and in the absence of precipitation we need cold weather to produce man-made snow as a last resort. In the absence of cold, then we really are out of luck and this new reality might confirm that global warming is slowly ushering in. So what can we expect in our future? 

A continued average temperature rise and with it, an elevation of the snow line, which means much shorter ski seasons and a continued advantage for ski resorts located at higher elevations, along the line of what’s observed today in the southern hemisphere where the ski season is now pretty much limited to three months of the year. 

If and when this happens let’s hope for a gradual change spread over many, many years!

Early snow incursion

We misw incursionsed the first snowflakes of the season in Park City as we were on the road, but today was a more serious opportunity to see snow on the ground as we woke up. 

In fact this was Mother Nature’s way of rolling out its own first white carpet of the season just for us! 

Let’s hope it’s a harbinger of more snow to come and of another good ski season...

 

My Solstice

Where I live in Park City, the summer solstice is happening today. Of course I know that it doesn’t always fall on June 21. For instance, this year it’s on June 20 for me and can go to June 22, while happening simultaneously for all of us. Weird, isn’t it? 

This variation is due to the difference between the calendar year and the Earth's orbit around the sun. As you astronomers know perfectly well, the summer solstice is the moment when the sun reaches its northernmost point from the equator. 

So why in the world do I celebrate it at 8:42 pm on June 20, while my friends in the European Community get it on June 21 at 4:42 am and the folks from Sydney, Australia enjoy it at its fullest on June 22 at 2:02 am? Just because it happens precisely at 2:42 am in Greenwich, and all the other places see it at their own respective local times! 

What else can I say? Obviously, that it’s going to be downhill from there in terms of daytime length, except of course for my friends living in the 32 countries located entirely or partially in the Southern Hemisphere. They can expect longer days! To make the matter even more complicated, thirteen of these countries straddle the equator, meaning that they’re in both Hemispheres.

As I was told when I was younger, life is complicated, so instead of wringing my hands, I wish everyone a good solstice, just make it summer or winter depending on where you live and how hot or cold you feel!

Another record from Park City’s urban forest!

Complaining about our urban forest getting out of control has become a recurrent subject. If we needed to be reminded about it, this year’s record setting pollen is one very valid reason! It’s a fact that evergreen trees don’t necessarily shed the same quantity of pollen every year. 

Their pollen production varies due to a bunch of environmental and biological factors, like the warmer spring we just had in the Rocky Mountains that has caused more pollen production. Our windy conditions have done their part by dispersing it much more effectively than usual. The situation is also exacerbated by trees planted 40 to 50 years ago that now produce more pollen as they’re reaching maturity. 

Pollen production varies also from year to year as many spruce species show synchronized, intermittent years of high pollen and seed production, followed by lower-output years. Quite obviously, this is a record breaking year! Our mild winter has seen evergreens pollinating earlier and more intensely than ever before. Higher atmospheric CO₂ may have also played a role in increasing their production.

Our pollen covered deck at the end of May

Finally, I’ve always asked myself if pollen production was sex-oriented, and I found out that evergreens like pines, spruces or firs produce both pollen and seeds on the same tree, but in separate structures (male cones vs. female cones). For instance, male cones (small, often clustered) do release pollen, while female cones (larger, woody) just develop seeds after pollination. 

Now that I’ve learned all that stuff and shared it with you, will you give me a hand cleaning my deck when I’ll get to doing it around the middle of June?

Is it really spring in Park City?

Now that the daffodils are out and white pelicans are stopping over in Park City on their way to Canada, it looks as if winter is officially over and it might be time to dress the part.

This morning was still frosty, but we seem on the path of nicer and warmer weather. 

At least it generally happens during the month of May! In fact, after looking and comparing the night and day temperatures at our home from January 1 through April 30, I found, to my great surprise, that our winter temperatures in these four months were 2.5% colder this year than last, when my perception was totally the opposite. In contrast, that same period in 2023 (record breaking snow year) was 18% colder than this year. 

I’d guess it pays to keep a note on temperatures in order to talk intelligently about them!

Temperatures sink at Peter Sinks, Utah!

Early this week was very cold in Utah and while Park City scored a -4 Fahrenheit (-20 celsius) on Tuesday morning, an unknown place to most, called Peter Sinks, and located about 140 miles (225 km) to the north of us, near the Idaho border, registered -53 (-47 celsius) on Monday!

This place, a natural sinkhole in northern Utah, is one of the coldest places in the contiguous United States. Another one is Grand Forks, North Dakota, due to its high latitude, flat topography, and exposure to Arctic air. Peter Sinks is located 8,164 feet (2,488 meters), above sea level, in the Bear River Mountains about 20 mi (32 km) east of Logan where my son attended university. 

Due to temperature inversions that trap cold nighttime air, it routinely produces the lowest temperatures in the US mainland, Alaska excepted. Even in the summer, the bottom of the sinkhole rarely goes four consecutive days without freezing. 

It is so cold near the bottom of the hole that trees are unable to grow. I’m glad I’ve learned about this cool place and might even visit it next summer when the weather is getting to hot for me in Park City!

Utah’s bad snow seasons

This current snow season isn’t looking good. Even though snow began falling last October, it was in very small increments that didn’t have time to stick for very long, and if it were not for snow-making and cold enough temperature to make the artificial stuff, it would be downright catastrophic. 

What’s true is that I don’t like man-made snow, the limited area it corrals skiers into and of course the heightened collision danger. But without more natural falls, this is the only way we can slide down the hill.

There have been bad season in Utah before, like in 1948/1949 I am told, 1976/1977 when serious snow finally showed up on February 22 and when Chuck English, the former operation manager at Deer Valley remembers that he was working in Alta and had to go to the Deseret Industries Mormon thrift store to purchase “disposable” skis to slide over rocks. 

I also remember the 1979/1980 season when we had our Look national sales meeting at Park City early January. This was my very first time in what would become my real hometown. We stayed at the brand new Racquet Club Condos and couldn’t ski because there was no snow. All this reminds me that we might see a repeat of all this for 2024/2025. 

This and milder temperatures brought by climate change are not boding well at all for our ski future. Another good set of reasons for keeping my expectation very, very low and welcome a miracle if there’s one!

Winter’s early visit…

On Monday October 28, Mr. Winter made an impromptu visit, for a second time this season, to Park City. 

While an earlier first snow fall around the middle month didn’t last long, this one might be more serious and perhaps be “for good”, as the weather forecast that I’ve seen for the next couple of weeks calls for a string of snowy days. 

It’s rare that our snow season starts that early, but we’ve seen it before. Just let’s hope that it sets the stage for a snowy, powdery ski season. Our local ski resorts got the message and began blowing snow the very next day!

New Delhi, Utah?

On Tuesday, the (bad) air quality in Park City climbed to 181, worse than New Delhi, India at 163 this same day! An air pollution like this is clearly unhealthy and represents smoking 3 cigarettes that day. Thank God, we aren’t at a full pack yet... 

This was caused by shifting winds bringing smoke from a 20,000 acre fire, just 30 miles away from Park City to move into town as the case has been for the past three of four days. At that point, on Tuesday evening, the fire was 21% contained. 

As a small storm system moved into the area, the smoke inversion settled into the surrounding valleys, including Park City, along with ash in some areas. 

Winds are variable, changing directions throughout the day. This requires firefighters to pay close attention, as wind direction and fire behavior can be erratic.

Hopefully the firefighters efforts will be successful despite a weather that remains stubbornly clear and sunny...