A future for the multi-resorts model? (Part Two)

If warm winters like this one happen to become the norm, passholders might hesitate to renew, especially casual skiers who only get a few days in. At the same time, requests for refund or credit are likely to grow, adding pressure on companies to soften rigid policies. As a result, senior pricing, local pricing, and more flexible products could become bargaining chips. 

Divestment is also quite plausible: Vail, Alterra, Powdr, and Boyne may shed low‑elevation or chronically unreliable mountains. This is already happening in Europe, where abandoned lifts are becoming a common sight everywhere. In the longer term, if the model does survive, it will have to mutate significantly. We should expect fewer small and, or low-elevation resorts, in the mega-pass networks. Instead, the investments will continue only in those high-altitude, snow-secure destinations. 

Making more snow will still remain difficult to accomplish in a phase of diminishing returns and water freezing temperature stubbornly remains set at 32 degrees! 

Perhaps more productive solutions to improve cloud-seeding could help by leveraging AI, but I might be getting ahead of myself! 

Will poor snow years force concessions like senior and super-senior passes? Possibly, there is room to see leverage here. If and when renewals drop, companies will have to respond. 

Historically, ski corporations only change pricing structures when they face public backlash, and anticipate a measurable revenue loss. A bad winter added to climate anxiety could create exactly that pressure on them. I’m not saying that skiing is dying tomorrow, but it will be consolidating as well as stratifying, and will take a different face. Skiing may continue at high elevations, in colder climates and will shrink and shrivel everywhere else. 

To survive, the mega-pass resort model will concentrate around fewer, more reliable snowy locations. It will be in some ways like the airline industry with fewer players, fewer routes but higher stakes. In addition, ski towns will have to creatively offer more non-ski revenue (mountain coasters, summer tourism, winter biking, ice driving schools and other events). Dynamic pricing may also have to replace the “all-you-can-ski” model. 

Unless climate warming really takes the “hockey stick” route, the multi-resort model won’t go immediately away, but will be headed toward a contraction phase. The big companies will protect their strongest assets and quietly offload the weak ones. And yes, a slimmer renewal cycle could finally force them to rethink rigid policies and offer more flexible or senior-friendly pricing. 

If anything, the next 5–10 years could be the most transformative period the ski industry has seen since the invention of snowmaking and of high speed chairlifts. I remain far less optimistic than the whole industry that remains in full denial as it seems trapped by its huge investments and its lack of appropriate action!