Have multi-resorts passes a future? (Part One)

In my opinion, multi-resort passes like Epic and Ikon are likely to get pummeled if our weather keeps on misbehaving as snow failed to deliver on time this season and in sufficient volume. If the missing element was just precipitation, I wouldn’t worry so much, but the growing warmth that’s in line with global warming is a much more concerning sign that doesn’t bode well for winter snow activities as we know them. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if companies like Alterra, Boyne, Powdr’ and Vail Resorts begin divesting some of their resorts at winter’s end. The net result of a poor snow year might create a reluctance to renew passes next year and also be the straw that breaks the camel’s back of these mega-resort networks that might have to mollify some of their rules, like creating a senior priced pass among other concessions. 

There’s no question that the ski industry is wrestling with exactly the same anxieties I’ve just described. The data backs up my intuition with warming winters, erratic snowfall, and rising rain‑on‑snow events. All are already reshaping the economics of ski resorts, especially those below mid‑mountain elevations. 

Whether we want to admit it or not, climate change is already destabilizing the traditional ski model worldwide. Fresh reporting shows that in Switzerland, for instance, ski resorts have boosted numbers through multi‑resort passes too, but there’s a widespread acknowledgment that melting glaciers and snowless winters threaten the long‑term viability of the model. 

All over Europe, resorts below 1,200 meters may need 100% artificial snow by 2050 just to remain skiable and a major European study warns that a quarter of ski resorts could face snow scarcity every other year with just 2°C of warming. So far the Epic, Ikon, and other multi‑resort entities may survive thanks to their geographic diversification: If Tahoe is dry, maybe Utah, Colorado or even New England is better. This spreads the risk. 

Their massive cash flow intake from pre-season sales get them revenue before snow falls. The system remains robust as brand loyalty and fear of missing out will continue to force skiers to buy early “just in case”, so just one bad season won’t break them. If this might prove to be true in the short term, my concerns would become very real in the mid term and that’s what we’ll explore tomorrow...