Comparing winter weather forecast to reality

When we can remember to check it, it’s always enlightening to compare long term, winter forecast to reality. 

Let’s begin first with reality. Our winter began miserably with little to no precipitation until late January, then February got quite snowy, while March precipitations tapered a bit, but the overall temperatures stayed cool. 

The winter ended up okay and Park City remained totally skiable through April, albeit just enough to allow some good skiing in its second half, but temperatures never broke record cold. In contrast with that reality, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had issued a grim forecast, unfavorable to us, in Park City, Utah or the whole of Colorado, for that matter. 

Precipitation were expected to be average all winter while temperature are predicted to be significantly warmer. This wasn’t far from the truth overall but its timing was quite vague. 

As for the Farmer’s Almanac’s snow forecast, it predicted precipitations to be slightly below normal, on average. In terms of temperatures, our winter should have been slightly milder than normal, with cold periods in early to mid-December, late January, and late February, which was more inaccurate than NOAA’s. 

Bottom line, a mixed bag and a waste of my time and attention. In the future, I shouldn’t pay too much attention to these forecast and remember that global warming is here to make our future winters more miserable when it comes to skiing conditions.