Will 2024 be warmer than 2023?

Last year (2023) was a record hot year for our planet, and so far, with some very warm weather all around the northern hemisphere it could very well be that 2024 continues this worrying trend and be another record hot year. 

Based on what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has to say there's a 22% chance 2024 will be the warmest year ever observed. January 2024 was already the warmest January on record globally.

This say, there’s no guarantee that it will be indeed warmer, as there are a few factors to consider starting with warmer ocean temperatures that act as a heat reservoir, influencing global air temperatures. Then there’s the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle that can also significantly impact global temperatures. As of now, there are mixed signals about El Niño. 

While some data suggests a possible transition to neutral conditions by mid-year, others leave a possibility of El Niño returning and typically warming things up. Then there is what’s called “Natural Variability”. This means that climate always has some natural year-to-year variability. Even with a warming trend, some years might be slightly cooler or warmer than others. 

Let’s just hope there’s a lot of variability in store towards a much cooler balance of the year!