Warmer climate and American politics

Will this record-breaking warm summer influence politics in the USA? The unusually hot summer of 2026 could have a political effect in the US, although probably not in the simple sense of “hot weather will get more Democratic votes.” The interesting part is that the political consequences may come through people's electricity bills, health, insurance, water, agriculture, wildfires and everyday inconvenience, rather than through climate ideology. 

July 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded for the contiguous United States, with every one of the lower 48 states at least 1°F above its 20th-century average. And the current August heat wave is affecting roughly 97 million Americans. The biggest effect may be psychological as there’s an important difference between “Scientists say the climate is getting warmer.” and “I can't sleep because my bedroom is 85°F, my electricity bill is $300, and my children can't play outside.” The second experience is politically much more powerful.

An AP-NORC survey conducted in late July found that 90% of Americans said extreme heat had affected their lives at least somewhat. About 80% said it affected their electricity bills, while roughly 70% said it disrupted outdoor family activities. That turns climate change from an abstract environmental question into a cost-of-living question. Let's make America more resilient.” 

Republicans face a particularly interesting political problem, as Trump has moved aggressively to roll back federal climate policies. Pew's March survey found that 87% of Democrats thought the federal government was doing too little on climate change, compared with only 31% of Republicans, but extreme heat creates a problem for Republicans if their voters are personally experiencing its consequences. Imagine a Republican voter in Arizona, Texas, Utah or Florida who says: “I don't want Washington telling me how to live. But I do want affordable electricity, reliable water, protection from wildfires and somebody to do something about these 110-degree days.” 

That voter doesn't necessarily need to become a climate-change voter, but could become an adaptation-and-cost voter. If politicians respond to heat primarily with higher energy prices, restrictions on gasoline cars, restrictions on natural gas, expensive regulations, taxes and bans, then voters may react negatively—even if they accept that the climate is warming. This is why I think energy affordability may be the key political variable. The most interesting possibility, in my view, is not a Democratic electoral landslide. It is the emergence of a new bipartisan politics of climate adaptation. 

And that could be more consequential in the long run than simply increasing the number of people who say they are worried about global warming. In other words: 2026 may be the summer when climate change becomes less a question of “Do you believe in it?” and more a question of “What are you going to do about what is happening to us?” That is a much more politically dangerous question for both parties.