Remember the Fall’s weather forecast? (Part Two)

In addition to the ups and downs of El Niño and La Niña, there has also been some atmospheric blocking and jet‑stream instability. During the fall of 2025, the jet stream did not set up in the classic 

La Niña pattern. Instead of steering Pacific storms into the Northwest and northern Rockies, it frequently split or stalled. 

This led to Storms missing the West entirely, with warm, dry ridges forming over the Great Basin and Rockies. In addition, the snow arrived later and in different regions than forecast had told us. 

According to the specialists, these blocking patterns are notoriously hard to predict more than 2–3 weeks ahead. The same experts also claim that local terrain effects amplify forecast errors. 

For instance, mountain regions like the Wasatch (here in Utah), Sierra (California), and Cascades (British Columbia, Oregon and Washington) depend on very specific storm trajectories. A shift of even 100 miles in the storm track can mean some heavy snow in one range but almost nothing in another. Once more, seasonal models cannot resolve these fine‑scale differences. 

Should I mention that the Farmer’s Almanac forecast uses non‑scientific methods and isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on? Unlike NOAA, the Farmer’s Almanac does not use physics‑based climate models. Its long‑range predictions rely on proprietary formulas, historical patterns and probably, fairy tales, which certainly don’t account for sudden ENSO shifts, jet‑stream behavior and anomalies, ocean‑atmosphere coupling and climate‑driven extremes. 

Seasonal snow forecasts will always carry large uncertainty, especially in the West where mountains create microclimates. NOAA’s probabilistic maps (like the snowfall probability tools I’m referring to) are more reliable than the Famer’s Almanac, but still cannot guarantee outcomes months ahead. Short‑range (1–2 week) forecasts remain far more accurate for snowfall than seasonal outlooks. 

The same specialists don’t mention climate change and the new trend for atmospheric rivers. I guess it’s only me who thinks that way. As a result, just don’t even consider long-term forecasts and make your own instead, or ask your dog if you have one!

Remember the Fall’s weather forecast? (Part One)

The fall‑2025 snow forecasts for the western United States promised us almost the same precipitations and temperatures as an average winter for Utah. In reality, it ended up being totally wrong and quite the opposite (no snow and milder temperatures) because the large‑scale climate signals that NOAA (US weather forecast) and the Farmer’s Almanac relied on, behaved totally differently than expected once the season actually arrived.

Even though the sources I’m mentioning were focused on general winter outlooks, they highlighted their key weakness as seasonal forecasts are probabilistic and heavily dependent on ENSO patterns (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The ENSO cycles are natural, recurring, 2–7 year climate variations involving shifts in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. 

These oscillations consist of three phases, El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool), and Neutral, all of which influence global weather, including precipitation, temperature, and hurricane activity, particularly during winter. As it looked into the winter 2025-26, NOAA, our national weather forecasting expected La Niña to continue, with a transition toward neutral conditions sometime in early 2026. 

But apparently the strength, timing, and regional impacts of La Niña vary widely from year to year. In 2025, the pattern weakened earlier and behaved irregularly, which disrupted the typical storm track that brings early‑season snow to the West. This means that even when the broad climate pattern is known, the exact distribution of snowfall was extremely difficult to predict months in advance. 

Our scientists are not talking much about climate change and the increased number of atmospheric rivers. This must be in my own head! There are however additional reasons that we’ll discuss tomorrow...

...And if we died happy?

In “Father and son”, one of my favorite Cat Stevens’ songs, a verse goes like this: “Look at me, I am old but I'm happy” and challenges the assumption that aging is declining and leads me to say “Sounds good, and from there what about dying happy?” 

This can be seen as the outcome of my recent blog on a similar subject and it just sounds like a much better alternative to the doom and gloom associated with death. It's certainly much preferable to most of the religious views I’ve heard about death, when it’s an inescapable step that we must fear because of its uncertainty, hellish consequences or for a very few lucky of us that lead a perfect existence, an eternal life of peaceful boredom in total seclusion from anything fun and exciting! 

So with this in mind, what does it take to die happy? While this is a rather provocative question, it’s one that deserves more than platitudes or tidy answers. “Dying happy” isn’t just a poetic notion; it’s a philosophical challenge, a personal reckoning, and maybe even a quiet rebellion against these fear-based narratives that often surround death. In Cat Stevens’ song it suggests that joy can deepen, even as the body slows. 

That’s a powerful lens for thinking about death: not as a tragic ending, but as the final chapter of a well-lived story. To die happy could mean feeling complete, perhaps not necessarily having done everything, but having done enough of what mattered. It’s also being at peace with our choices, our relationships, our regrets. Then there’s what we leave behind, our legacy, memories and enough kindness that can ripple outward. There’s also having loved and having been loved, maybe deeply, imperfectly, but truly. 

At that point, we are much better equipped to face death without dread, not because we’re fearless, but because we’ve brought some meaning into our lives. It shouldn’t be about perfection or sainthood, but about integration or the sense that our life, with all its mess and beauty, added up to something that felt real and worthwhile. 

The next obvious question is what will it take us to get there? Here’s where our curiosity and our reflective nature will have a chance to shine. Consider these ingredients, like choosing what matters, even in small ways, in what we say, what we forgive, what we pursue. It’s also about cultivating presence by being present, now and not always chasing or regretting something. 

I would add making peace with imperfection by accepting that some things will remain unresolved, and that we will be okay. We’ll also be able to add happiness by connecting meaningfully, with people, with ideas, with the world. Even the shortest moments of connection can echo very far. Finally it will be about letting go borrowed fears, especially those handed down to us by dogma or culture. Our own truth is worth more! 

I see a future world of robots...

If things continue to progress the way they are, and with the rise of AI and continued growth in data processing power as well as the increasing role played by drones in war, self-driving cars, etc., can we envision a future filled with robots, doing menial task, playing the roles of warriors, teachers, doctors firemen, farmers, cosmonauts and even CEOs? 

At that point, would the majority of humanity become relegated to the sidelines, collecting some kind of universal basic income and basking in leisure, education, social engagement and other interests? On the other side of that blissful coin, there could also be a multitude of concerns and challenges associated with my vision of the future.

We should also question how wealth could and should be distributed and how humanity will resist falling into an even more unequal society. Mental welfare should also be carefully considered as the absence of mandatory work and all kinds of activities might lead to boredom, depression and other ills. 

This is even before one considers the dark side of rogue AI and malevolent robots, plus all the problems linked to environment and climate change. But before we even begin tackling these subjects, how does my vision make you feel?

Leveraging new year’s resolutions

Well used, new year’s resolutions can add a lot to a person’s capital and, over time, have the power of being incredibly transformational. 

Too often, new year’s resolutions are not really planned, but made up hastily, at the very last minute, as the new year gets underway. This might be one reason why these hurried pledges have a hard time “sticking”, and end up “vaporizing” almost as fast as they got formulated. 

Like for any important endeavor, a little bit of planning can make a huge difference in strengthening a resolution. When conceived early enough, resolutions will greatly benefit from an appropriate selection, ample planning and proper mental preparation, making them more likely to succeed.

In the past, all of my new year’s resolutions have never benefited from this kind of attention and too few of them have come through. 

This year though will be different, because I want to turn this popular tradition into a useful and lasting outcome...

Picking the future we like best

As we move forward into our senior years, we often have a little voice that asks: “What do you plan to do with your remaining time on earth?” Many of us ignore that voice and carry one with the usual way of doing things. 

A few though, can’t dare to ignore it; they face it and look at three compelling options: Stay just the same, following the exact, usual ruts, Give a shot at improving or creating new ideas, or projects, and, of course, just do strictly nothing, letting nature take its course and riding the erosive power of time into full decrepitude. 

For me, this is a question impossible to ignore, perhaps because of my guilt-ridden nature or my devastating perfectionism, so I always aim for the big prize, whatever it happens to be inside my mind at the time. If that project can get traction, great.

If it threads water, it might keep me level. I still prefer having a solid margin of safety. I know for sure that if I want things to say the same, this might not quite work, and I’ll slide backwards, riding my own decline. 

Not an appealing option for me!