Sunday, November 9, 2008

Enters “deleveraging...”

I am a staunch optimist and never quite accepted in my mind that we could get right on the brink of a total economic collapse. I wasn’t counting on one simple principle, which we might call “wiggle room.” You see, it always pays to have reserves, be they in the body, as extra fat, under the mattress in wads of cash or during a marathon race in the of minutes we’re ahead of our next pursuant. Should something happen with some extra insurance, bad situations can repair themselves pretty fast and we can just keep going...
Today’s economic mess is going to feel much harsher because it’s drastically different than anything we’ve experienced in the past half-century as there are absolutely no reserves left; we’ve run our economic ship aground. Real estate developers as well as retailers have sold merchandise “in advance” of the anticipated needs. In the U.S., consumers have purchased automobiles because they couldn’t pass “employee pricing” or some other gimmick too good to miss. In financial terms, we’re all overbought and this recession is the result of multiple bubbles in the housing and the credit markets that took years to build and could probably take three solid years to correct.
This “overfill” situation will be compounded by a new urge to save as most retirement accounts have recently been so battered that serious “need” may prevail over the frivolous “wants” of consumption. No stimulus package, no extra hand-outs to car manufacturers and other sectors will really alleviate the pain that’s coming. Only old recipes of sacrifice and thrift will do. In other words, a new American revolution!

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