Thursday, August 21, 2014

Back in the market?

The US stock market has been doing phenomenally well lately. I measure my words “phenomenally...” By all measures, today's market is overvalued. By how much? Some 3%. Will its evaluation fall (I've not said “will the market fall”)? Probably. Will it go back up? Definitely. Then what's an investor to do?
Look at historical data; in case of doubt stay in the market, if not invested, buy on “dips”, keeping in mind that the biggest dips were 55% in 2009 (yes, the market was 45% below true valuation then - what a fantastic opportunity to buy!)

If you want to sell, watch for the market to get overvalued to 105% or 106% (it went up to 114% during some “bubbles”) and then patiently wait for it to get to minus something and then purchase! This said, buying on an elusive dip is always very challenging!

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