Worldwide GDP, crisis and forecast

The entire world gross domestic product for 2008 amounts to $71 trillion, which means just over $10,000 per capita. Now, “developed countries,” boast a per capita GDP somewhere between $30 and $50,000. My theory is that as long as there are people on the planet willing work for far less money than others in the developed world, we’ll see a continued flight of job towards these low-cost countries. This may take a few more years, and bypass Africa, with most activity occurring in Asia and - to a lesser extent - in South America, but we’ll see that trend grow. Continued population growth to the 9 or 10 billion predicted will also bring increased business all over the world. On the other hand, there will be a point where it will no longer pay to ship heavy products over the oceans, which will reduce that trend as will as a shift from non renewable to sustainable energy, that are more costly to implement and to sustain. With these considerations and the current economic crisis in mind, I predict that, in the near future, the global GDP will grow slightly while that of emerging nations will continue to increase and that of developed nation will see a commensurate decline. Let’s revisit these predictions in 2014 and 2020!