Population decline? Seriously?

Overpopulation has always been my main fear, only to be displaced now by Putin’s 7,000 nuclear warheads. 

This said, back this summer, James Pomeroy, a young British economist has been claiming that the 8 billion people will reach by November 15 will drop to 4 billion in 2100 instead of the more than 10 billion and a half forecast by the United Nations. 

His assertion is based on a sharply declining birth rate (which in some countries is a current trend) plus an aging population, that would make birth curve and death curve intersect between the years 2080 and 2090. This would bring the world population at the end of the century to 4 billion instead of 10.5. 

This drop in fertility is explained by many factors like a delayed average age of pregnancy in societies where women enter the labor market later, but also too high rents. in rich countries or a down-trend for large families. 

This might sound re-assuring, but I don’t think my grandson’s, if he lives to be at least 92, will see it. That is unless, of course, Putin decides to play God with his atomic arsenal (if it’s still in good working order), and forces the US to respond in kind, something Pomeroy didn’t think of including in his reasons for a drastic population decline. 

Do you also buy into his magical theory that suddenly will come out of nowhere and heal the planet?