Snow this winter?

Last snow season in Utah broke all records, exceeded all expectations and made the predictions from the government agency and the Farmer’s almanac look totally incompetent. So, as we embark into a winter 2023-24 strongly influenced by El Niño, what should we believe? 

One thing seems clear, after three years of moderate La Niña winters, El Niño is poised to return in full force, having major implications for the North American ski season. Let’s look at what El Niño is, how it works, and the impact it will have on snowfall this season. 

As of August, El Niño conditions have shown a probability greater than 95 percent of lasting through the winter. But what exactly is El Niño? The phenomenon leads to shifts in the global atmospheric flow, subsequently impacting weather and climatic trends all around the planet. In the US, the most notable effect is on the mid-latitude jet stream.

This means that ski destinations in the southern Rockies (like New Mexico, Arizona, southern Colorado, and Utah) and the Southeast (like North Carolina) may witness above-average snowfall, courtesy of this southern storm path. California resorts will likely also enjoy enhanced precipitation. 

Central Rockies including central Utah (south of us in Park City) and parts of Colorado, might not be as profoundly affected, given their position. Conversely, ski locations in the northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest might see less snowfall due to the jet stream’s modified route. 

This said, and while I might feel good about the probability of plenty of snow at home, I’ll still set my expectations very low, plan to use my rock skis a lot and hope for a good surprise!