My presidential election forecast

Every now and then, many of my European friends ask me if I believe that Trump will be beaten by Harris at the upcoming November election. I generally outline my response along these lines: 

Women account for more than 51% of the overall population in the US, but they’re registered to vote at higher rates than men. In recent years, the number of women registered to vote in the US has typically been around 7.5 to 10 million more than the number of men registered to vote. 

These women hoped that Hillary would get the presidency in 2016, but thanks to Facebook, Vladimir Putin and Julian Assange, this didn’t happen. In the meantime, the US Supreme Court killed Roe vs. Wade. That has created a widespread anger among women who’ll jump at the opportunity of electing Harris. 

Also, during the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections, polls proved to be overestimated in favor of Republicans, but they eventually proved to be off the mark. Expect the same trend this year as many GOP women won’t vote like their husbands. 

In addition, Trump is beginning to lose his mind. He can’t stay on message and desperately needs to attack his opponent by insulting her and lying every step of the way like a 4 year old. At close to eighty, he’s has begun his decline and worst yet, he hasn’t understood that one catches more flies with honey than with vinegar. 

His erratic behavior is going to amplify as the election nears and, as a result, it will alienate many of his non-hard core supporters (moderate Republicans and Independents) who will decide not to bother going to vote and negatively affect down-ballot Republicans. 

Unless the Harris-Walz duo makes some huge mistakes along the way, expect a landslide in their favor. This year’s Presidential election will end up being for, and all about, the American Women.