Since late October 2008, I've stayed totally out of the market. In the meantime, I made the right call when the market hit its low mid March and have also observed an interesting rebound taking place. Had I re-entered then, I would have made a 25% profit, another testament to the power of “if!” Coincidentally, I'm currently reading “House of Cards” by William Cohan that shows, among other things, how Wall Street is opaque to ordinary investors like you and me. This tells me that mere mortal like us can only take a bird eye's view at the stock market and approach it with a much longer time-horizon.
The problem is that we tend to observe it hour per hour, as if we were watching grass grow, and then we go crazy and become relentless. Since I'm not a day trader, that shouldn't matter, but the incessant daily observation of the stocks' ebb and flow makes me over-react and exacerbates my natural impatience. Away from that incessant scrutiny is a more profitable strategy consisting of looking at ups and down over several months and pegging a plan accordingly. Protection follows with smart stop-loss orders; when there's the need to re-enter, it's done by setting thresholds consistent with our observations and strategy and voilĂ , the system is now on auto-pilot. If this makes sense to you, let me know and I'll have some moral support...
Saturday, May 23, 2009
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