Sunday, June 13, 2010

Yesterday's Japan, today's China?

China's going to take over the world, right? Well we thought the same about Japan in the eighties and look what happened; after years of buying everything in sight, including American debt under Reagan, the land of the rising sun fell flat on its face when the Nikkei bubble burst and, as of today, has never been able to fully recover. So could that aborted Nippon success story be written into the script that is developing for China? Who knows; some pundits are predicting the formation of a massive bubble, at the core of which is a growing real estate speculation fueled by China's massive stimulus package.
My take is perhaps subtler as I see more a looming danger coming from the corruption of Chinese traditional values colliding with western-style hedonism and all-out consumption. We'll see, but instead of counting on the fall of the giant, we might be better off thinking of practical ways to rewrite, re-engineer and restart our own economic engine...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Japan's relatively small internal market may have been its weakness. China's population is ten times that of Japan. If required, China's own population can provide its manufacturers and service providers with economies of scale unavailable to Japan, lessening the need to rely on the vagaries export-driven economics.