Wednesday, May 13, 2020

The likely shape of next ski season...

Absent a forceful anti-Covid 19 medication or an effective vaccine, this upcoming ski season may have to happen under an innovative protocol. Since no one knows what it will be, let me make it up for you. Ready?

Transportation: 
The easiest way to come to a ski resort will be to drive there with one’s own car. Getting from California to Park City is no big deal. Try to drive from Chicago or New York, that’s another story altogether.

Flying will resume but what percentage of seats can be safely used? Only 30 or 50 percent? How expensive will it be to fly? Won’t many of us be to scared to board an airplane? I would think so, and all these consideration might compound into a downward spiral.

Lodging: 
Let’s assume that skiers are staying in sanitized hotels and condos and that this part should be simple and easy. Further, it might be possible to see a significant drop in rates.

Restaurants and bars : 
This summer should provide ample time to test a viable protocol for these public spaces. Again, the authorized percentage of space occupied will impact the capacity of these facilities and maybe the cost of food and beverage.

Finally, my favorite, Skiing:
Unless skiers aren’t part of the same household, a double chair will only sit one skier, a triple chair about the same. Only a quadruple might accommodate two skiers sitting on opposite ends. Then what do you do with a six-person chair? Two or three passenger? I’d vouch for just two.

Now let’s talk about gondolas. A four-passenger will get two folks at best, just be careful when your diagonal opposite sneezes! An eight people gondola, may receive four at the very best. A 35-people 3S gondola will be lucky if it can fit 8 people and a 100 passenger tram might get 10 or 12 skiers inside at the very most.

So, as you see, lifts are likely to be the critical bottleneck and it’s likely that uphill capacity on busy day can only be 30 to 40 percent of normal. This applies to big lines early in the morning off the base as well as most of the day on popular lifts and during holidays and busy weekends.

Of course, one key element will be how ski resorts will manage the humongous lines that will result and will they get as much money for their passes if folks have too wait a lot; I’ll let you guess that one!
If your skiing don’t improve, your patience will by leaps and bounds!

Conclusion:
Based on the above premises, expect a ski season to be only 30 to 40 percent of normal, unless skiers decide that making many turns is worth a life with less accumulated years. Let’s check that in April 2021!

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