Thursday, July 2, 2020

My updated views on the stock market

Currently, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CNBC, all big corporations mouthpieces are supporting as well as lending credibility to the current stock market bounce-back, that to many people, seems totally disconnected with the current economy and pandemic.

Everything “Corporate” is hoping that Biden won’t get elected in November and that they’ll avoid tax reform reversal as well as increased corporate taxes.

Since Trump’s main reelection yardstick that appeals to moderate Republicans and Independents is a buoyant stock market, everyone, from the White House to Wall Street is propping up this success indicator in order to avoid a painful punishment.

Yet, with airplanes not flying, cars not being sold and consumption at an anemic level, the overall second quarters earning cannot be anything but dismal.
Even though Morningstar seems to indicate that the market is even undervalued by 1%, let’s not forget that their valuation can only be based on first Quarter numbers. I expect at least a 10% stock market drop before July is over!

My view is echoed by a recent report from the accounting firm Deloitte, which foresees that a most likely scenario would be that we won’t return to the 2019 GDP level until the end of 2023...

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