Saturday, October 24, 2020

A more sedate presidential debate

The last face-to-face before the election was predictable; Biden was under pressure not to screw-up and Trump to look more organized and less combative. Both seem to have met that low threshold. 

Trump did it with his trademark lying, his reddish, contorted face and upper-body that didn’t like the constrictions imposed by the new rules, and Biden, who seemed extremely well prepared, did a pretty good job, at any rate didn’t blunder as Trump and the GOP were praying he would. 

This debate was the last chance for the Donald to turn around its declining poll numbers, but now that more than 50 million American have already voted, it will be increasingly difficult to gain support outside of his loyal base of supporters. 

Furthermore, Trump is now running out of cash. Big donors are now switching to Biden who raised almost three time the amount his opponent was able to get in September alone.

Based on FiveThirtyEight, a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, Joe Biden has a significant lead in national and state polls to the point that traditionally Republican states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas might now go Democratic. 

We’re in view of the finish line, and are way past the point where a normal polling error could let Trump close the gap. 

Based on that aggregator Trump only has a 12% chance of winning the contest. Barring a stunning surprise or event, Biden should now bag the presidency!

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